Trader Shorts $10 Million in Oil, Cuts 75% Position on Iran Invasion

On August 28, trader "xm39" began to reduce their position on the belief that "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" and this morning went short on oil. Their associated address 0x40f closed 175,900 WTI crude oil long contracts, with a transaction value of approximately $14.253 million, incurring a loss of about $282,000. Subsequently, "xm39" sold 1,182,300 shares of "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" on Polymarket, with an implied market probability of about 14.1%, recovering approximately $166,700, selling about 75.5% of their position, leaving 383,100 shares remaining. At this point, the implied probability in the market dropped to 12.5%. The average entry probability for the remaining position is about 23.28%, with a current value of approximately $47,900, showing an unrealized loss of about $41,300, resulting in a loss rate of 46.3%. This morning, the address opened a short position of 122,500 CL, holding approximately $10.183 million in short contracts, with an unrealized gain of about $30,000 and a return rate of about 5.9%. At the same time, they set 7 stop-loss orders, covering about 91.3% of the current short position. WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, driven by cooling expectations for U.S.-Iran negotiations and rising supply risks, but still accumulated a decline of about 4.3% this week.

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