SpaceX Surges 16% Despite Unlocking of 911.5 Million Shares

Have the markets just witnessed a shift between traditional finance and blockchain? As nearly a billion SpaceX shares became tradable, many anticipated massive selling pressure. This scenario did not materialize. The stock rose by 6.1% on August 6, while Web3 platforms recorded nearly $700 million in volumes on tokenized shares in just 48 hours. This unexpected convergence reignites the debate on the role of Real World Assets (RWA) in the evolution of financial markets.

In brief

• Despite the unlocking of 911.5 million shares on August 6, 2026, SpaceX's stock surged 6.1% to close at $114.92.
• Crypto derivatives SPCX and SPCXx on Gate, Kraken, and Bybit accumulated nearly $700 million in volume in 48 hours before the unlocking.
• The lifting of the lockup increased SpaceX's float from 4.9% to 11.8% of the total shares outstanding.
• Banks like Morgan Stanley and Bernstein are targeting price objectives of up to $248.

The Mechanics of the Unlocking and the Unexpected Resilience of the Stock Price

The trigger for this volatility lies in the expiration of lockup clauses on August 6, making 911.5 million Class A shares eligible for sale that had previously been held by pre-IPO investors and historical employees. This injection of shares more than doubled the float of the space company, increasing it from 4.9% to 11.8% of the total shares outstanding.

While such a supply shock typically causes a severe decline, the stock jumped 6.1% on the unlocking day, reaching $133.11 afterward. This rebound comes after a nearly 14% drop on August 5, which had pushed the stock to a historic low of $108.27. Investors had been concerned about the second-quarter results. Despite a 92% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.8 billion, attention had focused on $23.6 billion in planned capital expenditures in artificial intelligence and a cancellable contract. Nevertheless, the absence of a purge on August 6 suggests that the post-IPO selling pressure, initiated on June 12 at a price of $135, has been fully absorbed compared to the peak of $225.64.

This resilience has immediately bolstered the optimism of major U.S. investment banks. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, described the end of the lockup period as a strategic entry opportunity, designating SpaceX as a potential intergenerational value generator. For its part, Argus Research raised its recommendation to buy with a target of $160, while Citi maintained its positive outlook at $200 after the AI segment exceeded profit forecasts by about $1.5 billion. Bernstein, meanwhile, raised its price target to $248.

On the asset side, the IPO documents reveal that SpaceX holds a cash reserve of 18,712 BTC, originally acquired for $661 million and valued at $1.29 billion at the time of filing, ranking the firm among the top ten institutional holders alongside Tesla's 11,509 BTC. Furthermore, Elon Musk's stake, representing over 40% of the company, remains fully locked until June 12, 2027, eliminating any short-term liquidation risk from the founder.

Moreover, the neutralization of this major supply shock highlights the growing maturity of interconnected markets. The surge in volumes on tokenized equity products demonstrates that price discovery is now occurring in real-time through Web3 infrastructures, offering continuous liquidity that sometimes precedes and mitigates the volatility of traditional trading sessions. The combination of a cash reserve partially backed by bitcoin, massive banking support, and Elon Musk's long-term alignment provides sustainable stabilization prospects for the upcoming quarters.

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