SpaceX Stock Before Earnings: What to Expect From a $12.9 Billion Q3 and a First Profit

SpaceX stock goes into its third-quarter report after the U.S. close on October 20 with Wall Street expecting about $12.9 billion of revenue and, for the first time since the IPO, a profit. That consensus is roughly 65% above the second quarter, by the author’s arithmetic from $7.81 billion, so the report is as much a test of the growth story as of the earnings number itself.

Investors who follow SpaceX stock have a short list to check: whether the profit arrives, how much SpaceX is spending on AI computing and what management says about cash. SpaceX stock fell 13.6% after its last report, which is why the options market is pricing a large move in either direction this time.

When Does SpaceX Report Q3 Earnings and What Does the Market Expect?

SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time streamed on X, according to Teslarati. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, puts revenue at $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA at $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS at about $0.149. TipRanks lists consensus EPS at $0.14 and revenue at almost $12.9 billion.

Estimates vary at the edges. Pivotal Research, cited by TipRanks, projects revenue of $13.2 billion and EPS of $0.21, and TradingKey notes that some institutional forecasts reach $0.23. Tesla reports the next day, October 21, so the two Musk companies will land back to back. The consensus numbers are estimates and the actual results can differ.

What Would a First Profitable Quarter Mean for SpaceX Stock?

A first profitable quarter would be the first positive earnings per share since SpaceX listed, and it would answer one of the main questions behind the stock’s decline from its October high. In the second quarter, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier, but also a net loss of $541 million and a loss of $0.09 per share, according to KuCoin, TipRanks and TradingKey. SpaceX stock fell 13.6% after that report.

The word profit needs care. The consensus figures are adjusted numbers, and a result can be positive on an adjusted basis and still show a net loss under standard accounting. The sources reviewed do not say which measure the first profitable quarter headlines refer to, so readers should compare the reported net income with the adjusted EPS. The company’s own guidance and its comments on margins will probably matter as much as the headline number.

Which Numbers Matter Beyond Revenue and EPS?

Starlink growth, AI computing revenue, capital spending and cash flow are the numbers analysts are watching most closely. Pepperstone and Teslarati report expectations of about $4.9 billion from Starlink with 14.3 million consumer subscribers, and about $6.4 billion from AI computing, while TradingKey cites $4.7 billion to $4.8 billion for Starlink and $6.47 billion for AI. Management has targeted more than 2 gigawatts of computing capacity by year-end and 5 to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, according to Pepperstone.

Spending is the other side of the story. Second-quarter capital costs were $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion on AI computing systems, according to TipRanks, and consensus for the third quarter is about $19.61 billion with free cash flow of about negative $11.6 billion, per Pepperstone. TradingKey cites a cash burn closer to $10.8 billion, so the definition differs between sources. Teslarati also notes a long-term target of a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate, and Pepperstone points to a $20 billion bridge loan that matures in September 2027.

How Has SpaceX Stock Traded Into the Report and What Does the Options Market Imply?

SpaceX stock closed at $146.03 on Friday, October 16, and traded near $146.69 to about $148 before the open on Monday, according to TipRanks and TradingKey. Pepperstone noted that this is 15.1% below the $171.92 close on October 6. The stock listed on June 12, 2026 at $135, and Teslarati says it fell near $105 in early August, so the range since the IPO has been wide.

Options pricing points to a large move. TipRanks reported an implied move of 7.8%, or about $11.39 per share, which would put the range at $134.64 to $157.42, while Pepperstone cites about 6.8% for a one-day move. The two figures come from different calculations. TipRanks also lists a Moderate Buy consensus with 28 Buy, five Hold and two Sell ratings and an average price target of $217.50. Ratings and targets are opinions, and no source reviewed predicts how SpaceX stock will react.

What Are the Main Risks and Unknowns Around SpaceX Stock Earnings?

The main risks are heavy AI spending, cash burn, possible share unlocks and doubts about whether AI infrastructure will earn adequate returns. Capital spending is already large, free cash flow is expected to be deeply negative, and Pepperstone flags refinancing needs and funding costs. It also notes that AI-related stocks have been under pressure, citing weakness in CoreWeave and Gartner warnings about returns.

Share supply is another open question and the sources disagree. TipRanks says up to 328.4 million shares could become eligible for sale on October 24, while Pepperstone says roughly 1.3 billion shares become eligible around earnings, with a major lock-up expiry on December 8. Eligibility does not mean holders will sell. 

Can Traders Follow SpaceX Stock Earnings on WEEX?

Yes, SPCX is available to trade on WEEX, and the SPCX page is where the current pair details and terms are listed. A report that lands after the closing bell tends to move the price before most people have read the numbers, so the first reaction can be a gap away from Tuesday’s close and not a gradual drift. That is worth thinking about before the call starts, not after the first headline.

Trading SPCX on WEEX gives exposure to the price and is not the same as owning SpaceX shares. If the product carries leverage, a gap of the kind SpaceX stock showed after its last report can liquidate a position, and funding fees can add to the cost of holding it into the next session, so the terms on the page are worth a quick read, and pair availability can change. Some traders prefer to wait for the numbers and the call, then decide, and others set a loss limit in advance. WEEX also maintains a 1,000 BTC protection fund, which is an extra safeguard for users and does not take market risk away.

Conclusion

SpaceX stock heads into its Q3 report with consensus revenue near $12.9 billion, adjusted EPS of about $0.14 to $0.15 and the possibility of a first profit since the IPO. The consensus is about 65% above the second quarter, while capital spending of roughly $19.6 billion and negative free cash flow keep the funding question open.

Readers following SpaceX stock can compare the reported figures with the estimates, check whether the profit is on an adjusted or net basis and listen for what management says about capex and cash. The options market is pricing a large move, but its direction is not known.

FAQ

1. When does SpaceX report Q3 earnings?
SpaceX reports after the U.S. close on October 20, 2026, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. SpaceX stock may move sharply after the release.

2. What revenue do analysts expect from SpaceX?
Consensus is about $12.9 billion, roughly 65% above the second quarter’s $7.81 billion. Estimates for SpaceX stock earnings vary slightly by source.

3. Will SpaceX report its first profit?
Consensus adjusted EPS is about $0.14 to $0.15, which would be the first positive EPS since the IPO. SpaceX lost $541 million in the second quarter.

4. How much could SpaceX stock move after earnings?
Options imply roughly 6.8% to 7.8% in either direction, depending on the source. After the last report, SpaceX stock fell 13.6%.

5. Can I trade SPCX on WEEX?
Yes, WEEX lets users trade SPCX. It gives price exposure and not share ownership, so check the WEEX trading page for terms and risks.