Morgan Stanley: Off-Balance Sheet AI Commitments Exceed $3.1 Trillion

Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the total off-balance sheet commitments of major players, including Nvidia and Broadcom, have surpassed $3.1 trillion. This includes leasing commitments of $1.1 trillion and procurement commitments of $1.7 trillion, with on-balance sheet debt and lease liabilities totaling $770 billion. Amazon and Google's free cash flow turned negative in the second quarter of 2026, and Meta is expected to follow suit next quarter. Financing tools are restructuring the capital structure of AI computing power from six aspects: off-balance sheet leasing and procurement commitments form the first layer of financing, while the proportion of debt issuance is expected to rise from 2% in 2025 to 19% in 2026. Google has freed up $110 billion by cutting buybacks and issuing equity, Oracle's customer prepayments in the second quarter amounted to $4.6 billion, and Broadcom and Nvidia have launched a chip leasing SPV to support unrated AI labs. Morgan Stanley believes that the financing structure has become a core variable in the AI supply chain, and the importance of tracking off-balance sheet commitments and changes in accounting judgments is nearly as significant as tracking chip shipments themselves.

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