Conditional Return of Companies to the Bitcoin Market; The Era of Reckless Capital Raising is Over!

According to analysts, if the price of Bitcoin begins to rise, corporate purchases of Bitcoin could accelerate in late 2026 and into 2027; however, investors are likely to be much more selective in choosing the treasury companies they intend to finance.

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, stated in an interview that there has been a significant decline in treasury Bitcoin purchases in the third quarter. According to official documents, the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy company increased by a net 1,666 BTC in the third quarter, compared to 83,901 BTC in the second quarter, indicating a sharp decline. Additionally, according to statistics provided by Rasmussen, other public companies added a total of 5,617 Bitcoin to their assets, while this figure was 45,725 BTC in the previous quarter.

Rasmussen expects that the renewed acceleration of corporate Bitcoin purchases could begin as early as this year. Jag Conner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, also stated that if the stocks of companies holding Bitcoin treasuries are traded again at a price premium, a new wave of purchases could begin; as this situation allows them to issue new shares without diluting the Bitcoin holdings of existing shareholders for each share, and purchase more Bitcoin.

This model became very popular during the treasury boom of 2025, where companies could raise capital by issuing shares at a price higher than the value of their Bitcoin assets. However, with the decrease or elimination of this price premium, the issuance of new shares lost its attractiveness, and companies' ability to finance further purchases was limited.

Conner said:

Shareholders have witnessed the collapse of premiums and asset sales by some companies during market downturns. Investors are now pricing these businesses based on financing costs, balance sheet discipline, and the amount of Bitcoin per share.

Therefore, a bullish rally could reignite purchases, especially among companies with sound financing structures, but a return to the reckless and unrestrained capital raising of last year is unlikely.

Established Bitcoin Treasuries May Access Capital Sooner

Bitwise's October market report also indicated a decrease in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in the third quarter, primarily due to smaller companies abandoning their Bitcoin treasury strategy. Rasmussen explained that twelve companies that entered this field during the frenzy of 2025 sold off their total Bitcoin assets mainly to pay off debts or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums disappeared.

Conner expects that if purchases resume, established players will attract capital sooner than others.

He said:

Initially, capital will likely flow towards established players; companies that have the right scale, high liquidity in their securities, and a performance history that investors are now demanding.

Rasmussen noted that most large corporate buyers (outside of Strategy) were operational businesses adding Bitcoin from their cash flow, not through issuing shares to finance purchases. He said this approach "is a smaller source of demand, but much healthier."

Meanwhile, Conner warned that the widespread emergence of new treasury companies is likely to occur only when the market rally is fully underway and advanced.

He added:

A broad wave of initial public offerings and new companies is likely to arrive late in a rally and after premiums have risen again; and the timing itself is a warning sign.

Bitcoin ETF Funds Can Support Market Recovery Without Treasury Booms

Rasmussen pointed out that a net inflow of $6.4 billion into Bitcoin spot ETFs occurred in the third quarter, stating that even without another explosive wave of corporate purchases, there will be other drivers for Bitcoin price recovery.

He said:

Corporate purchases are one source of demand for Bitcoin, but not the only one.

Conner also agreed that ETF demand could sustain the market recovery for a while, but warned that part of this activity stems from basis trades, which can quickly close and reverse.

He clarified:

Without corporate purchases, the market loses a price-insensitive buyer and becomes more dependent on capital allocators who balance their portfolios based on macroeconomic conditions.

Recent financial flows indicate that ETF demand could reverse. According to data from the SoSoValue platform, Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. recorded a net outflow of approximately $229 million last week, marking the second consecutive week of net capital withdrawals from these funds.