U.S. Q3 Growth Rate Estimate Revised Down to 4.0%

The real-time estimate of the U.S. Q3 growth rate has been revised down to an annualized 4.0% compared to the previous quarter. On the 19th, the Atlanta Federal Reserve announced the Q3 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate estimate at 4.0% via GDPNow. This figure is 0.3 percentage points lower than the 4.3% reported on the 14th. This adjustment marks the fourth downward revision since the Q3 estimate peaked, starting from 5.0% on July 30, rising to 6.2% on August 3, and then being revised down four consecutive times. The main reason for the downward revision lies in the investment component, with the estimated growth rate of real private domestic investment for Q3 lowered from 15.2% to 13.7%. Consumption and investment have also been revised down, with the estimated growth rate of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for Q3 dropping from 4.1% to 2.5%. GDPNow is a model that estimates U.S. growth rates in real-time and is adjusted regularly based on economic indicators rather than official forecasts. It provides a mid-estimate based on current economic indicators, which may differ from the official growth rate. According to Blue Chip consensus, the growth rate forecast for Q3 varies from just above 1% to the mid-3% range. The Atlanta Fed plans to update GDPNow again on August 26.