Traffic through Hormuz at 10 Vessels Daily, Gulf Oil Exports Recovery Delayed

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk to about 10 vessels per day, while the recovery of Gulf oil exports is also delayed due to tanker attacks and U.S. military blockade operations. Although the shipping volumes from Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq have increased in July, the traffic through the strait remains far from pre-war levels.

Straits.live, which tracks the volume of traffic through Hormuz, reported on July 23 that the number of vessels passing through in a day was 10. This page describes the pre-war normal traffic volume as being around 88 vessels per day. Publicly available operational data may reflect delays and could be revised later, making it difficult to determine trends based solely on daily figures.

Tanker attacks have once again shaken the recovery of traffic. AP reported that two tankers belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) were attacked by drones while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on August 14, and another ADNOC vessel was attacked the following day. The UAE Foreign Ministry has raised the issue of Iranian responsibility, but Iran's immediate response at that time was not confirmed.

The U.S. Central Command is also treating the tensions in the strait as a key variable in military operations. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, visited the USS Lincoln deployed in the Arabian Sea on August 16. AP reported that the USS Lincoln is supporting the blockade of Iranian ports and has been continuously sailing for over 240 days.

Export indicators showed recovery signals ahead of the traffic situation. Saudi Aramco resumed loading crude oil at the Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf on June 26, after about four months. At that time, two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) were loading, and one was waiting nearby.

Aramco had suspended loading at Ras Tanura since March 8 and had diverted exports to the port of Yabu in the Red Sea. Ras Tanura is a key crude oil terminal in eastern Saudi Arabia, and when exports to the Gulf are blocked, the burden on the Red Sea route and land pipeline network increases.

The overall shipping volumes from Gulf oil-producing countries also increased in the first half of July. According to a Reuters tally reported by Gulf Times, the crude oil and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran were about 16% higher than the average daily volume in June, reaching 12 million barrels per day. However, the same report indicated that the flow through the strait has slowed again due to the resurgence of combat.

This trend is interpreted as a phase where both export recovery and traffic instability are occurring simultaneously. Oil-producing countries are increasing shipments by utilizing available routes and terminals, but attacks on vessels and military blockades are putting pressure on insurance premiums and operational decisions. Shipowners and cargo owners typically consider traffic risks, insurance conditions, port waiting times, and diversion costs when making operational decisions.

The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Before the war, about one-fifth of global maritime oil and natural gas trade passed through this route. Even if alternative routes exist, it is difficult to absorb all volumes, so disruptions in traffic simultaneously affect oil supply and demand, freight rates, and insurance premiums.

Previously, this publication reported that international oil prices showed weakness amid a deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Iran's denial of direct negotiations. The current level of 10 vessels indicates that a limited traffic phase continues between complete blockade and normal traffic.

For ADNOC, traffic through the strait remains a direct logistics variable. Disruptions in traffic within and around the Strait of Hormuz could affect the transportation schedules and insurance costs of UAE energy companies. The recent tanker attacks have once again highlighted the transportation risks for UAE energy companies.

Prediction markets are also leaning towards a delay in normalization. As of August 16, related contracts on Polymarket reflected a 7% chance that traffic through Hormuz would normalize by August 31. The resolution criteria for this market are based on the 7-day moving average traffic volume from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Port Watch.

However, the prices in the prediction market are merely the results of participants' trades and do not represent official forecasts. The actual normalization of traffic will depend on the volume of vessels passing through, the level of military conflict, the intensity of port blockade enforcement, and the conditions for insurance and freight. Even if daily traffic volumes increase, it will require separate verification to determine whether the 7-day moving average recovers to normal levels.

There are also connections to the domestic market. Disruptions in Hormuz could impact crude oil futures, refining and petrochemical sectors, inflation expectations, and risk asset sentiment. However, it is difficult to definitively conclude the direct impact on the prices of virtual assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) based solely on this data.

The confirmed trends currently show that the reactivation of Saudi Ras Tanura, increased Gulf exports, attacks on ADNOC tankers, and the continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports are all occurring simultaneously. The normalization of traffic through Hormuz is expected to be determined by the IMF Port Watch 7-day moving average by August 31 and any further tanker attacks.

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