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PBoC: Market Should Not Regard Powell's Speech as the Starting Point of a Series of Easing Measures
BlockBeats News, August 26th - A research report released by Zhongjin on August 26 stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was seen by the market as a "dovish" signal of monetary easing. However, Powell's comments did not provide a strong indication of the duration and extent of the interest rate cut, but merely clarified the Fed's policy "reaction function" - that is, when the risk to employment is greater than inflation, the Fed tends to lower interest rates. However, under significantly higher tariff rates and tightened immigration policies, the risks of both employment and inflation coexist. If the risk of inflation surpasses that of employment, Powell can still pause interest rate cuts using the same "reaction function."
Therefore, the market should not interpret Powell's speech as the beginning of a series of easing measures, but should recognize the challenges faced by monetary policy when the goals of employment and inflation are at odds. If tariffs and immigration policies further escalate "stagflation-like" pressures, putting the Fed in a dilemma, there will not be a true meaning of monetary easing. Market risk appetite may decline, and volatility may intensify as a result.
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