Or Face Index Delisting? Strategy Caught in "Quadruple Whammy" Crisis

By: blockbeats|2025/11/24 11:00:04
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Original Article Title: "MicroStrategy Faces Trust Crisis: Risk of Index Removal, Coin Sale Buyback Incentive, Executive Sell-off"
Original Article Author: Nancy, PANews

The crypto market is in turmoil, with Bitcoin's weakness leading to an overall downturn, accelerating the bubble's clearing, and making investors feel like they are walking on thin ice. As an important crypto benchmark, the flagship Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company Strategy (MicroStrategy) is facing multiple pressures, such as a significant mNAV premium convergence, reduced coin hoarding intensity, executive stock sell-offs, and the risk of index removal, challenging market confidence.

Strategy Encounters Trust Crisis, Facing Index Removal?

Currently, the DAT track is experiencing its darkest hour. With the continuous decline in Bitcoin prices, the premium rates of many DAT companies have plummeted across the board, stock prices are under continuous pressure, increased holdings have slowed down or even stalled, and business models are undergoing a survival test. Strategy is also not immune, falling into a trust crisis.

mNAV (market net asset value multiple) is one of the key indicators to measure market sentiment. Recently, Strategy's mNAV premium has rapidly contracted, nearly reaching a critical level. According to StrategyTracker data, as of November 21, Strategy's mNAV was 1.2, previously even dropping below 1, a decrease of about 54.9% compared to the historical high of 2.66. As the largest and most influential DAT company, the malfunction of Strategy's treasury premium has sparked market panic. The reason behind this is that the decline in mNAV has weakened the financing ability, forcing the company to issue stocks to dilute existing shareholders' equity, putting pressure on the stock price, further causing mNAV to decline, leading to a vicious cycle.

Or Face Index Delisting? Strategy Caught in

However, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, pointed out that mNAV, as an indicator to evaluate DAT companies, has limitations and should even be removed from industry reports. He believes that mNAV may be misleading because its calculation does not consider the company's operational business or other potential assets and liabilities, and is usually based on assumptions about outstanding shares, not covering unconverted convertible debt.

Poor stock performance has also raised market concerns. According to StrategyTracker data, as of November 21, Strategy's MSTR stock total market value is around $50.9 billion, lower than the total market value of nearly 650,000 bitcoins held (with an average holding cost of $74,433) at $66.87 billion, meaning the company's stock price has shown a "negative premium." Since the beginning of this year, MSTR's stock price has fallen by 40.9%.

This situation has raised concerns in the market about its exclusion from indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA. JPMorgan Chase predicts that if the global index provider MSCI removes Strategy from its stock indices, outflows could reach up to $2.8 billion. If other exchanges and index providers follow suit, the total outflow could reach $11.6 billion. Currently, MSCI is evaluating a proposal to exclude companies whose primary business is holding Bitcoin or other crypto assets, and where these assets represent more than 50% of their balance sheet, with a final decision to be made by January 15, 2026.

However, the risk of Strategy's exclusion is relatively low at the moment. For example, the Nasdaq 100 index undergoes a market cap adjustment every year on the second Friday of December, where the top 100 are retained, positions 101–125 need to have been in the top 100 the previous year to be retained, and anything beyond 125 is unconditionally removed. Strategy still falls within the safe range, ranking within the Top 100 in market cap, and recent financial reports show a solid foundation. Additionally, several institutional investors, including the Arizona State Retirement System, Renaissance Technologies, the Florida Retirement System, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Swedbank, and the Swiss National Bank, have disclosed holdings of MSTR stock in their third-quarter reports, which has supported market confidence to some extent.

However, the recent slowdown in Strategy's buying activity has been interpreted by the market as a lack of "ammunition," especially since the third-quarter report showed that its cash and cash equivalents amount to only $54.3 million. Since November, Strategy has only acquired a total of 9,062 bitcoins, significantly lower than the 79,000 acquired during the same period last year, although this is also influenced by the rise in Bitcoin's price. The main acquisition this month came from a recent purchase of 8,178 BTC, with other trades mostly involving a few hundred bitcoins.

To raise additional funds, Strategy has begun seeking international market financing and introduced a new financing instrument, perpetual preferred shares (with a high dividend rate of 8-10%). Recently, the company raised approximately $710 million by issuing its first Euro-denominated perpetual preferred shares, STRE, to support its strategic initiatives and Bitcoin reserve plan. It is worth noting that the company currently has six outstanding convertible bonds, with maturity dates ranging from September 2027 to June 2032.

Furthermore, the actions of internal executives have also increased market attention. Strategy disclosed in its financial report that Strategy's Executive Vice President, Weiming Shao, will resign on December 31, 2025, and since September of this year, he has sold $19.69 million worth of MSTR stock through five transactions. However, these sales were made under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan. Such sales are executed according to a preset 10b5-1 trading plan. Under U.S. SEC rules, 10b5-1 trading plans allow company insiders to trade stocks based on predetermined buying or selling rules (including specified quantities, prices, or schedules) to reduce the legal risks of insider trading.

Debt Risk Overstated in Multi-Party Analysis, Pressure Significantly on High Premium Investors

Facing the downturn in the crypto market and multiple concerns about the DAT business model, Strategy founder Michael Saylor reiterated the "HODL" concept in a post, expressing optimism about the recent Bitcoin price drop, remaining bullish for the future, and even emphasizing that Strategy will not sell its holdings unless Bitcoin falls below $10,000 to boost market confidence.

Meanwhile, the market has also provided various analyses of Strategy. Matrixport pointed out that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiary companies in this Bitcoin bull market. The market has long been concerned about whether the company will be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to repay debt. Based on the current asset-liability structure and debt maturity distribution, its assessment suggests that the probability of "being forced to sell Bitcoin to repay debt" in the short term is relatively low and is not the main current source of risk. The most pressured currently are the investors who entered at a high premium stage. Most of Strategy's financing occurred when the stock price was near the $474 historical high and the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share was at its peak. As NAV gradually falls and the premium shrinks, the stock price has also retraced from $474 to $207, causing investors who entered at a high premium level earlier to face significant unrealized losses. Compared to the current Bitcoin price increase, Strategy's current stock price has significantly retraced from its previous high, making its valuation relatively more attractive, and the expectation of being included in the S&P 500 Index in December still exists.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo further analyzed Strategy's debt risk and expressed "highly skeptical" views on its liquidation in a bear market. In a tweet, he stated that Strategy's debt is mainly composed of convertible senior notes, which can be redeemed at maturity in cash, common stock, or a combination of both. Of these, Strategy has approximately $1.01 billion in debt maturing on September 15, 2027. Woo estimated that to avoid the need to sell Bitcoin to repay debt, Strategy's stock trading price must be above $183.19 by then, roughly equivalent to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju also believes that the probability of Strategy's bankruptcy is extremely low, stating, "MSTR can only go bankrupt if a small asteroid hits Earth. Saylor will never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders demand it, as he has repeatedly emphasized publicly."

Ki Young Ju pointed out that even if Saylor were to sell just one Bitcoin, it would shake the core identity of MSTR as a "Bitcoin treasury company," triggering a double death spiral of Bitcoin and MSTR stock prices. Therefore, MSTR shareholders not only hope for the value of Bitcoin to remain strong but also expect Saylor to continue employing various liquidity strategies to drive both MSTR and Bitcoin prices up together.

Addressing market concerns about debt risk, he further explained that the majority of Strategy's debt is in the form of convertible bonds, and not reaching the conversion price does not imply liquidation risk. It simply means the bonds need to be repaid in cash, and MSTR has several ways to deal with upcoming debt maturities, including refinancing, issuing new bonds, securing secured loans, or using operating cash flow. Failure to convert does not trigger bankruptcy; it is a normal part of debt maturity and is unrelated to liquidation. While this does not mean that MSTR's stock price will always remain high, the belief that they would sell Bitcoin to boost the stock price or go bankrupt as a result is entirely absurd. Even if Bitcoin were to drop to $10,000, Strategy would not go bankrupt; the worst-case scenario would only involve debt restructuring. Additionally, MSTR could also choose to use Bitcoin as collateral to raise cash, although this would bring potential liquidation risk, therefore serving as a last resort.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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