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Next Week Macro Outlook: Powell to Appear Under Intense Pressure
BlockBeats News, July 19th. In the coming week, the PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in Europe and the U.S. will provide any signs of the impact of Trump's tariff policies. On the central bank front, the Federal Reserve enters a blackout period ahead of its July meeting, but Fed Chair Powell, who has recently been embroiled in a public relations storm, will make an appearance. Market participants will be holding their breath to see if he responds to Trump's recent attacks. The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision.
On Tuesday at 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will deliver welcoming remarks at a regulatory conference;
On Thursday at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision; at 20:45, ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference;
On Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims figure for the week ending July 19th.
Reports this week suggested that Trump had discussed the idea of firing Powell with other Republicans. However, he quickly downplayed these discussions, saying it was "highly unlikely" he would dismiss Powell. If Powell insists on defending the Fed's independence, reiterating the need for patience and waiting for more data to show the impact of tariffs, the dollar is likely to extend its recovery.
Nevertheless, it is premature to start discussing a bullish reversal for the dollar. Despite the positive reaction of the global reserve currency to recent tariff-related headlines, if tariffs intensify concerns about an economic downturn, traders may still react as they did in April by selling the dollar.
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