Is Zhao Changpeng Still at the Poker Table After the Peace Hotel?

Binance will not lose to Hyperliquid, only to time.

Written by: Zuo Ye

Trump's later years are lonely.

During his first term, Ivanka and Kushner were by his side, but in the second term, they transformed into Natalie Harp and Witkoff. The position of his daughter was given to a close aide, and the position of his son-in-law was given to an old friend. Especially the latter, Witkoff, was a courtier crafted by Trump himself, handling minor troubles like Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine as a private envoy, bypassing formal channels like the Secretary of State.

The courtiers also manage family businesses. Witkoff helped little Trump operate the WLFI project, selling a $500 million stake to the UAE royal family, while CZ casually invested $2 billion to issue USD1.

Witkoff has been a bit troubled lately, having taken Sun to court, with accusations of Sun unlocking early to crash the market, while the other side claims WLFI violates the principle of decentralization.

In the most absurd plot, CZ passively entered the fray; on one hand, USD1 collaborated with Aster on RWA Perp, while on the other hand, Binance Wallet launched the second phase of the Tron Carnival, trying to delay restrictions on HTX.

Loyalty is not absolute; absolute disloyalty is what it is. CZ made a choice, and Binance naturally would not appear at the CFTC IAC meeting. That meeting table is the recognition Washington gives to the crypto industry; who is present and who is absent is clear at a glance.

Sin and Punishment

He is determined to marry a chaste girl without a dowry, but she must endure suffering.

In 2017, two days before "9.4", Sun Yuchen barely completed Tron’s ICO and went to the U.S., thus beginning his journey as a multinational capitalist;

In 2017, two months after "9.4", Zhao Changpeng finally migrated Binance's servers to AWS, pursuing the ten-year arduous journey of spiritual Americans.

Similar experiences evoke empathy and plant seeds of distrust towards power. After wandering internationally for many years, residing in the Gulf and the Strait, the tangible and intangible hands of the U.S. have always been probing nearby, making it hard to sleep.

Looking at the world, opposing order before becoming rich, and desiring order after becoming rich is an eternal paradox of human nature. However, old money is often more closed and exclusive. How to transition from "new money" to "old money" and thus preserve family wealth is a global dilemma.

Do you not see, the wealthy like Amazon founder Bezos and the son-in-law of the great leader Kushner are all waiting for membership approval from the Indian Creek Country Club in Miami? For Chinese, the crypto circle, and the newly rich, integrating into the existing order of the U.S. can only be increasingly difficult.

Even crime can be pardoned, but original sin can only be prayed for. The desire for acceptance from old money, the protection of the U.S., and even the recognition of the circle are sought to gain a moment of respite.

SBF, Arthur Hayes, and CZ represent three different journeys in America. Although SBF ultimately faces 25 years in prison, FTX was once Binance's biggest threat, bar none, even Hyperliquid cannot compare.

In the game of compliance, one must play by American rules.

Sun Yuchen is still the same Sun Yuchen, but Trump is not Buffett.

Lawsuits do not necessarily lead to loss, but the logic of politics does not speak of right or wrong. As Schmitt said, "The primary purpose of politics is to distinguish friend from foe."

Brother Sun and Witkoff are not fighting a lawsuit; they are fighting for Trump's face.

Image caption: The penalties of crypto are not interchangeable

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

Why must compliance be done in the U.S. market? Isn't obtaining a license in Abu Dhabi enough?

Absolutely not. The PoW era of the crypto circle is manufacturing; staying in China is the way to make money. The PoS era of the crypto circle is finance; rushing to the White House is the way to get rich.

The structural advantages of China and the U.S. in the world economy are similar. Unfortunately, people are products shaped by the times, especially those who have led a certain node, will be trapped in their own path.

Starting from mid-August, CZ has been continuously mocking the masses on Twitter with meme coins like MarsCoin/Giggle. Sun began to cry out on Twitter, calling for everyone to defend the decentralized advantages of USDD and oppose the team control of USD1, not knowing what CZ thinks.

Then, Trump mentioned Hyperliquid, and the story took a turn. We do not understand why CZ stands with Sun, but we all know that Binance’s attempt to block HL in the first phase failed, and now facing the U.S. compliance market, scoring new points will be even more difficult.

Even with many conflicts with the current U.S. government, the UK and the EU have also followed suit to sanction HTX, but it is unclear why Binance has repeatedly delayed until there is no retreat.

Perhaps, the rivers and lakes are not about fighting and killing; it is about human feelings and affairs.

Red and Black

Julien could not see her face, but he still shot at her. When he fired a second shot, she finally fell.

Love knows not where it begins, but it goes deep. The story of CZ, Brother Sun, and Trump still has more to tell, but Binance's stance against HL will determine whether Binance has a future.

Creating public opinion on Twitter is ineffective; forming lobbying groups is the American way.

In February 2026, Hyper Foundation donated 1 million $HYPE to establish HPC (Hyperliquid Policy Center). Besides regular lobbying, HPC will also maintain overall Perp compliance in the U.S., raising the banner of strengthening American innovation, advocating for the entire crypto industry.

CME just finished its TradeXYZ at the IAC meeting, and HPC released a report, using rigorous data to prove the complementary effect of Perp and CME options. This is what a lobbying company should do, not bribing officials or building relationships, but coordinating social media + BD + GR + peers to form a joint force for implementation.

Image caption: HPC report

Image source: @HyperliquidPC

HPC sends deep liquidity into a deep network of relationships, while CZ builds BSC in Bhutan, watching HL in the White House with either cold or warm eyes.

CZ or Binance is not without interest in lobbying. CZ's ability to gain a pardon must have benefited from investing millions in lobbying, but strangely, the more Binance spends, the worse the effect often is. It is not their home turf, and they have no means to resist. They clearly provided the largest liquidity to the Trump family, but they do not even have the qualification to attend the IAC, let alone a position near the president.

Without the White House, there is no enthusiasm from Wall Street, because the global financial market, strictly speaking, is divided into China, the U.S., and others.

The Eastern market can only operate offshore, while the U.S. market sets barriers in the name of compliance. The core is to ensure that control remains in American hands, just like TikTok.

Binance has already been marginalized in practice. To be fair, Coinbase, Kraken, and other competitors or innovators have low capabilities, but relying on entry barriers, they can only shrink in a corner of the U.S. However, the dollar is too valuable, and the U.S. market is large enough.

They superficially promote compliance, but in reality, they hinder Americans from enjoying quality services. However, for Binance, which faces the biggest threat after FTX, the liquidity of the U.S. market cannot be abandoned, otherwise, HL will eventually overthrow Binance—Binance can operate offshore, and HL can too, but Binance cannot operate in the U.S., and HL will.

Image caption: The liquidity battle reignites

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

It is destined to be unable to comply with entry into the U.S., at least to preserve Binance's liquidity. Asters are not up to the task, and BN.US can only sit at the children's table with Coinbase; Binance's main site cannot enter the U.S. in the short term.

From this perspective, CZ is already in a state of panic, only able to occasionally promote meme coins to maintain a living.

From the market structure, a de facto anti-Binance alliance has formed. Xu Mingxing's OKX and ICE have joined forces to supplement derivatives and other trading categories for the latter. HL and Coinbase strive to suppress Binance's momentum with compliance.

Binance has already become like Alibaba. Only the entity has combat power, unable to form any group combat advantage, and it is even unclear who is targeting Binance. Binance has almost sponsored all crypto KOLs, contributing over $4 billion in non-tax revenue to the U.S., which is 40 times that of BitMEX, yet it has received neither honor nor recognition.

Even HL's Jeff is Chinese, and Trump has given Sun Yuchen the opportunity to face the court. You cannot accuse Trump of racial discrimination; perhaps all Chinese are equal, but some Chinese are more equal than others.

Outsider

On the day I was arrested, I was held in a prison dominated by Arabs, who laughed and asked me what crime I committed. I said I killed an Arab, and they stopped talking to me.

Regardless of how the story between Binance and HL unfolds, CZ can never regain the historical status he had before October 11. At that time, Vitalik had already led a16z to rush towards the end of L2, while Wall Street was becoming the new master of Crypto.

In the great surge on August 20, every exchange was developing TradFi business, whether in the name of RWA or DEX. In the world we are familiar with, everyone vaguely feels that it will no longer be the same as before.

It will no longer be the alternating reign of BTC and altcoins. CZ, with Binance, wallets, and Asters, can only passively enter the USD1/USDC market.

Without BUSD, it is Binance's first crack, while HL has already obtained the repurchase $HYPE commitment for USDC. At that time, we thought the CC combination (Coinbase + Circle) would use this model to expand liquidity, thus countering USDT.

But now, I have clearly divided my body from this, targeting has always been Binance's liquidity. If we are to find a reason for HL, the revenge for $JELLYJELLY is the most appropriate.

Image caption: Deep position change

Image source: @asxn_r

Today, HL's liquidity depth or spreads compared to Binance are no longer news. HL has accumulated a group of followers, crazily gathering in the town square, while Binance can only face the liquidity competition head-on.

Then the VIP standards keep dropping, and the EU, observing the situation, naturally rejects the MiCA license application. You can even see how Binance, open to all cooperative users, is repeatedly pressed for its stance in the cracks.

Binance will provide user information to Russia and will cooperate with the UAE to inquire about employees, and it also faces collective lawsuits in the UK.

This is not simply "big family, big business, many troubles," but a matter of taking sides. This is precisely the taboo for Binance, which holds the strongest liquidity. If you want to be the Peace Hotel, you must accommodate all kinds of people.

Binance providing user information to Russia may seem outrageous in the Western world, but Trump's Witkoff has visited Moscow more than eight times since 2025.

This is the confusion of Binance, in an increasingly opposing world, no longer needing a Peace Hotel, but no one wants to bear the blame for breaking the peace. They hope CZ will choose actively, and when the other side gets angry, direct the resentment towards Binance.

In anxiety, what CZ can do is to continuously disperse resources to all parties, in exchange for Sun's desire to use USDD to replace USD1's narrative legitimacy, as well as the Trump family's further dissatisfaction with him.

It can even be said that this sense of alienation as an outsider is just like crypto's relationship with the world. Before the current Trump market began, everyone was fleeing, either to AI for profit or to take a break from life.

Compared to AB Finance, which died before birth, and BitMart, which was half-buried and then revived, Binance is indeed too powerful, powerful enough that the entire industry has no rivals, and even the founders are actively operating, attracting customers.

But the artificially created market is too uncontrollable. There is no so-called BTC four-year cycle, nor is there any quantum crisis or ETH L1 mainnet upgrade. Everyone's attitude is one of indifference and apathy.

Everyone's dissatisfaction must have an outlet. In silent efforts, what Jeff needs to do is to concentrate resources to improve Perp liquidity. In a back-and-forth, the initiative has already changed hands.

Binance will ultimately lose to time.

Conclusion

All mortals must die, and all mortals must serve.

The thorns of the Iron Throne are written in blood. Every generation of entrepreneurs has its historical mission. I often wonder what would happen if CZ retired after getting out of prison; perhaps Giggle would not just be a Meme Coin.

Facing old money, Trump, Jeff, Brother Sun, and the royal family of Abu Dhabi, amidst endless worries, has CZ ever missed the poker games in Shanghai? Back then, laughter was just laughter. The first time he heard about Bitcoin created by Satoshi Nakamoto, the refinement and beauty felt while reading the white paper—has he ever thought that this was not an opportunity for wealth but a chance to participate in changing the world?

Perhaps there will never be an answer, and perhaps everything after this will be the answer.