Hyperliquid is about to launch a prediction market, what are the new features of the HIP-4 protocol?

Original Title: "Hyperliquid to Launch Prediction Markets, Aiming at Polymarket Territory?"

Original Author: Seed.eth, via Bitpush News

In the world of crypto derivatives, where Hyperliquid holds a dominant position, the platform is now attempting to expand into another booming trillion-dollar market: prediction markets.

Today, Hyperliquid officially announced the testing of a new feature called "Outcomes." This news immediately sparked excitement in the secondary market, with its native token HYPE recording a 10%+ price increase within 24 hours, surpassing the $30 mark.

Amidst Polymarket's dominance in on-chain traffic, Kalshi and Coinbase's partnership to tap into the regulatory-compliant market, Hyperliquid's entry is far from a mere "me too" move. Instead, it leverages its native underlying performance advantage to redefine the rules of the game.

What is Outcomes

According to the official HIP-4 proposal, Outcomes is not just a simple betting interface; its design focuses on the following three key core logics:

1. Full Collateralization, No Liquidation Risk

Unlike leveraged perpetual contracts, Outcomes follows a "pay-as-you-go" principle. It uses full collateralization and settles within a fixed range. This means that regardless of market fluctuations, as long as it is not the settlement date, traders' positions will not face forced liquidation, fundamentally eliminating the risk of liquidation.

2. Nonlinear Settlement, Greater Strategic Space

Outcomes introduces a nonlinear settlement mechanism. For traders, this is akin to having a flexibility close to options, allowing you to build more sophisticated hedging tools. You are no longer limited to a simple "yes" or "no" binary game, opening up greater space for risk management and strategy composition.

3. Native Integration, Bridging Liquidity

Outcomes is deeply integrated on Hyperliquid's underlying chain, HyperCore, and priced in the native stablecoin USDH. More importantly, it can share full-margin with the platform's existing spot and perpetual contracts. This means that users can seamlessly connect multiple trading strategies in the same margin account, truly achieving interoperability and reuse of liquidity.

Multi-Party Hegemony: Who Is the Endgame of Prediction Markets?

The current prediction market is at a "1995 Browser War" moment, forming four radically different business paths:

· Polymarket sells "Viewpoints," serving as a barometer of social trends;

· Kalshi sells "Compliance," attracting U.S. domestic funds looking to mitigate legal risks;

· Coinbase takes a "Dimensionality Reduction" approach, turning the prediction market into a mass-market consumer product through in-app features;

· Hyperliquid has the most hardcore logic: it doesn't require you to click Yes or No on a webpage, instead, it allows you to short BTC while casually buying an Outcomes contract for "Non-Farm Payroll Data Beats Expectations" to hedge macro risks.

Currently, the community is most focused on the synergistic effect of HIP-3 (Permissionless Listings) and HIP-4 (Outcomes).

In this architecture, Hyperliquid's evolutionary path is clear: it will first deploy "Regular Army" markets (Canonical Markets) based on objective data sources like interest rates and macroeconomic indicators; then, it will move on to permissionless deployment.

Behind this strategy is the legendary team advantage of Hyperliquid. It is hard to imagine that behind this behemoth with an annual revenue of over $1.1 billion and trading volumes rivalling Tier-1 CEXs is a core team of only about 11 people. This "Special Forces" team, composed of Harvard, MIT geniuses, and top quantitative hedge fund elites, has achieved astonishing efficiency, with each member contributing an annual revenue of over $100 million. Due to the team's extreme efficiency and streamlined decision-making process, Hyperliquid can iterate rapidly.

A senior DeFi observer stated: "Coinbase's entry validates the business model, but it is still centralized. Hyperliquid's Outcomes are challenging a proposition: the endgame of prediction markets is not in social media but in financialization. When prediction outcomes become as smooth as buying and selling stocks, and can achieve margin sharing with futures, the imagination space of on-chain finance truly opens up."

Is HYPE Severely Underestimated?

As the cryptocurrency options market matures, the Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest (OI) has surged to $1 billion, with the platform's total 24-hour trading volume spiking to $4.8 billion, hitting a new all-time high.

Reflecting on this development, Blockworks researcher Shaunda Devens believes this move further supports Hyperliquid's upside valuation potential.

Devens points out that even though HIP-4 has captured 100% of Polymarket's trading volume, its contribution to Hyperliquid's revenue is only about 5%.

While this data may seem surprising at first glance, the underlying logic is that the perpetual contract market (including the long-tail assets brought by HIP-3) is extremely large. Devens believes that Hyperliquid's current valuation of around $7 billion is evidently undervalued compared to Polymarket's latest $10 billion valuation (based on 2025 funding data). The launch of Outcomes is primarily aimed at supplementing a key part of its full-spectrum financial matrix.

Despite the bullish market sentiment, it is important to note that Outcomes is currently still in the testnet phase, and the exact timeline for its mainnet launch has not been announced. However, with the explosion of the HyperEVM ecosystem, in the future, mainstream service providers like Kalshi or Crypto.com theoretically can leverage the HIP-4 protocol to migrate to run on the Hyperliquid chain.

In summary, the prediction market is entering its prime era. In the United States, thanks to the advancement of regulatory transparency, the partnership between Kalshi and Coinbase has expanded the prediction market coverage to all 50 states; while in the EU and Asia, similar growth trends are equally strong. For Hyperliquid, Outcomes is far from a simple "gamble" but an indispensable piece in building the "Wall Street on-chain."

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