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glassnode: Bitcoin Inflow Shows Exhaustion, Crypto Four-Year Cycle May Still Hold
BlockBeats News, August 21st, the latest market analysis report from glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin's capital inflow is showing signs of exhaustion, even as the price hit a new high of $124,400, demand is weakening. While this demand slowdown was happening, speculative positions surged, with open interest in major altcoin futures contracts reaching a record high of $60 billion at one point, before pulling back by $2.5 billion.
Long considered a barometer of the "altcoin season," Ethereum has once again become the barometer of this round of volatility. Its hodler dominance has risen to the fourth-highest level in history, while perpetual contract trading dominance has surged to a new high of 67%, marking the strongest structural shift to date.
From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price action also echoes previous patterns. In both the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, measured from the cycle low, Bitcoin's peak price was only delayed by 2-3 months compared to our current levels. In addition, long-term holders have already achieved profits comparable to the previous bull market, reinforcing the impression that the market is in the late stages of the cycle.
Overall, these signals highlight signs of increasing leverage, profit-taking, and intensified speculation characteristic of a historically mature market phase. However, each cycle has its own characteristics, and it is still uncertain whether Bitcoin and the broader market follow a fixed timeline blueprint.
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