「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent's Long Essay Rebuts Bear Market View: Threefold Bearish Conditions Needed for Confirmation of Bear Market, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022
BlockBeats News, January 19, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin posted a long article on social media, stating that recently some analysts have compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in the short-term price pattern. However, if we look at the long-term picture, this comparison appears completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro background is completely opposite to that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk aversion, and Bitcoin at that time exhibited a distribution structure at a high point in a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, indicating the emergence of a new uptrend.
In addition, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin showed a weekly chart M-top structure, which is usually associated with a long-term cycle top and tends to suppress prices for a long time. However, there is currently a breakout of the weekly chart uptrend channel. From a probability perspective, it now looks more like a bear trap before returning to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it must be noted that the $80,850 to $62,000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process has provided a better risk-return ratio for long positions: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, there needs to be a new inflationary shock or a major geopolitical crisis comparable to 2022; central banks restarting rate hikes or asset balance sheet quant tightening; and the price decisively and sustainably falling below $80,850. Before these conditions are met, it is too early to assert a structural bear market, as it is more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference in the Bitcoin investor structure between the current (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institutional-led, structural long-term holding. In 2022, Bitcoin went through a typical "crypto-native bear market" driven by retail panic selling and cascading liquidations. Bitcoin has now entered a much more mature institutionalized era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institutional-level volatility.
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