Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Pressure in September, Dependent on ETF Fund Flows and Spot Demand

CryptoQuant Research analysis indicates that September has long been one of the weakest months for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a return of about -0.8% over the past 50 years. Bitcoin recorded negative returns in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, but has seen gains in September for three consecutive years in 2023, 2024, and 2025, suggesting that this seasonal pattern is weakening. The uncertainty surrounding the 2026 U.S. midterm elections may increase market volatility, prompting investors to reduce risk exposure. Analysts believe the key lies in whether seasonal adjustments will evolve into widespread risk aversion, necessitating attention to ETF fund flows and spot Bitcoin demand. If risk aversion spreads across the entire market, Bitcoin will come under pressure; conversely, if ETF and spot demand remain strong, the traditional September pattern may be broken again.

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