Analysis: The net holdings of long-term BTC holders have reached a new historical high, indicating that the bottom of the bear market may not be far away

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH) have reached a new historical high. As of June 17, the net holding amount of LTH reached 14.96 million BTC, an increase of 20,000 BTC compared to the peak formed on March 27. This is also the second time that LTH net holdings have reached a new high since BTC entered the bear market. More and more BTC are unwilling to participate in short-term speculation and turnover, with 75% of the total circulating supply held by LTH.

He believes that historically, the bottom of each bear market usually appears after the net holdings of LTH begin to rise, meaning that there is first a "holding recovery," followed by a "bottom formation." In the last cycle, LTH net holdings experienced three new highs, corresponding to three strong distributions, which occurred during the periods of the Federal Reserve releasing interest rate hike expectations, the Luna crash, and the FTX collapse. This cycle has currently reached a new high for the second time. He believes that the key is not how many times a new high is reached, but whether the scale of previous LTH distributions shows a clear downward trend. If this distribution scale is lower than the last time, it indicates that selling pressure is gradually exhausting, and the true bottom of the bear market may have already formed or is not far off.